Tropical Wave in the Caribbean Has Big Storm Potential

Posted June 19, 2017

In areas where it isn't raining, expect hot, muggy conditions. However, recent satellite imagery & surface analysis indicates at least some attempts at organization with low pressure very near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now it has a medium chance of development as it moves west toward northern South America and the eastern Caribbean Sea next week. Most of the models keep the storm away from Florida, but as you can see in the spaghetti plot of the various models, we need to keep an eye on it. A hurricane hunter is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if it becomes necessary. This area of interest has a 60% chance of formation in the next five days.

Be sure to continue to check and Channel 2 for continual updates in the days ahead.

The ultimate track of Invest 93 remains uncertain, even as development appears increasingly likely.

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In the past, the NHC could not issue watches or warnings without an advisory package and that advisory package could not be created without a tropical depression, storm, or hurricane. The disturbance will drift northwest and into the Gulf of Mexico around June 19-20.

Meanwhile. a couple of unseasonably strong tropical waves have emerged off the coast of Africa & are moving west. This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest at near 20 miles per hour toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South America during the next two days.

A broad, unorganized disturbance in the western Caribbean will migrate into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico over the next two to four days. As the upper low in the Gulf gets pulled east by a trough it is possible the moisture and whatever develops would follow that path.